If the NHL can’t market this series, then it may be time for the league to forget marketing all together. In just two days, perhaps the greatest collection of talent that we have ever seen will be displayed on the ice in Joe Louis arena. The Red wings come into this series as the leagues most dominant team. They had 115 points on the season as well as the best won/loss record. But their dominance was clear and deep. Take a look at the following stats that the Wings compiled this year.
They are Ranked #1 in the NHL IN SHOTS PER GAME
They are Ranked #1 in the NHL IN FEWEST SHOTS ALLOWED
They are Ranked #1 in the NHL IN SHOTS ON GOAL DIFFERENTIAL
They are Ranked #1 in the NHL 5 ON 5 PLAY GOALS FOR AND AGAINST
They are Ranked #1 in the NHL FOR WIN PERCENTAGE AFTER LEADING IN 1ST PERIOD
They are Ranked #1 in the NHL FOR FACE OFF WIN PERCENTAGE
They are Ranked #1 in the NHL FOR WIN PERCENTAGE IN GAMES WHERE THEY SCORED 1ST
They are Ranked #1 in the NHL FOR WIN PERCENTAGE WHEN OUTSHOOTING OPPONENT
THEY ARE RANKED #1 IN THE NHL FOR GOALS AGAINST AVERAGE DIFFERENTIAL
THEY ARE RANKED #1 IN THE NHL FOR THE BEST +/- OF ANY TEAM AT HOME
THEY ARE RANKED #1 IN THE NHL FOR THE BEST +/- OF ANY TEAM ON THE ROAD
THEY ARE RANKED #1 IN THE NHL WITH 115 POINTS ON THE SEASON
THEY ARE RANKED #1 IN THE NHL FOR BEST RECORD VS SAGARIN TOP TEN TEAMS END OF REG
THEY ARE RANKED #1 IN THE NHL PLAYOFFS IN SHOTS ON GOAL PER GAME
THEY ARE RANKED #1 IN THE NHL PLAYOFFS IN SHOTS ON GOAL DIFFERENTIAL
THEY ARE RANKED #2 IN THE NHL PLAYOFFS IN 5 ON 4 GOALS
THEY ARE RANKED #1 IN THE NHL PLAYOFFS IN MOST SHORT HANDED GOALS
THEY ARE FIRST TEAM TO REACH CONF FINALS.
About the only stat the Redwings are not dominant in is shooting percentage. But they get so many shots per game, it doesn’t really matter. The Power play is another area where they are somewhat average. But that’s not a problem because they were the best 5 on 5 team in the league this season. The Red wings are a dynasty. They are a team that has 6 players who won a cup together in 2001. They have made the playoffs 17 straight years. The Redwings have been the best team from the start of the season and they enter the Stanley cup finals with a 12-4 record. But the stat I’d like to focus on most is shots on goal differential. The following is a list of all Stanley cup champions going back to 1990. The list will show you that we haven’t had a Stanley cup winner with a regular season ending shots on goal differential average that was in the NEGATIVE since the 1990 season.
1990 Pens 90-91 = 30-34 = -4*** (Last time a team finished regular season with Negative Shots on goal differential , yet still went on to win cup)
1991 pens 91-92 = 31-30 = +1
1992 pens 92-93 = 34-32 = +2
1993 Montreal 93-94 = 32-30 = +2
1994 New Jersey 94-95 = 30 - 25 = +5
1995 Colorado 95-96 = 32 - 28 = +4
1996 Detroit 96-97 = 33 - 25 = +8
1997 DETROIT 97-98 = 30-25 = +5
1998 DALLAS 98 99 = 27 - 23 = +4
1999 NEW JERSEY 99-00 = 32 - 25 = +7
2000 COLORADO = 00-01 = 29 - 25 = +4
2001 DETROIT 01-02 = 30 -26 = +4
2002 NEW JERSEY 02-03 = 31 - 23 = +8
2004 TAMPA BAY 03-04 = 30 -25 = +5
2005 CAROLINA 05-06 = 31 - 30 = +1
2006 ANAHEIM 06-07 = 30 - 26 = +4
2007/2008 Redwings +11 2007/2008 Penguins -2.0
Take a look at the mighty Red wings. I went back years and couldn’t find Shots on goal differential that was better than +11. Penguin’s center and 20 yr vet Gary Roberts said, “Playoff hockey isn’t about fancy goals, it’s about getting pucks to the net.” Roberts is spot on. Take a look at the west conf finals that just took place. The Stars had the top shooting percentage in the league this year at 11%. They also had Turco in net, a superb goalie. But the Redwings just ran rough shot over the Stars. Go back last year to the playoffs. The Sabres had the best record mainly due to their 12% shooting percentage. But they finished the regular season with a -1.5 shots on goal differential. They won the first two rounds of the playoffs but met the Senators who finished with a +4. They got drilled in 5 games. While the sabres and Stars possessed a great shooting percentage, it just didn’t hold up in the playoffs when push came to shove. So here we have a redwings team that is something like 21-8 against the Sagarin Top ten teams. They had the leagues best record and most points. They had the best plus/minus at home and on the road of any team. They were the best 5 on 5 team in the league. They were ranked #1 with the best face off percentage. They have the most short handed goals so far in the playoffs. And they have one of the all time great shots on goal differential averages we have ever seen. The Redwings are team that is extremely talented defensively that simply does not allow many shots. And once they get the puck, they have numerous skill players that can maintain possession better then any team in the league. The Pittsburgh Penguins are the leagues next dynasty. They hit the jackpot a few years ago when they drafted Sidney Crosby, Gino Malkin, Jordan Staal , and Marc Andre Fleury in successive years. They also have a slew of other #1 picks that finally have reached their potential. While none of them have the star power of the three mentioned above , but the Penguins would not be in this position if it weren’t for guys like Ryan Malone, & Brooks Orpik. The Penguins lose Gary Roberts, Eaton, Fleury, Crosby for an extended period of time this season. The Penguins appeared to be in major trouble. But two things happened. Backup goalie Ty Conklin came in and faced 31 shots a game and led the league in best save percentage. One game in particular against the Islanders, he stopped 50 out of 52 shots. The other thing that happened was that Evengi Malkin became one of the best players in the world during Crosby’s absence. He would not let the Penguins lose. He and Conklin would not let the Penguins lose. They were something like 13-4 at one point without Crosby. That is hard to figure. This showed how deep the Penguins were however. If you had any doubt before, there was little doubt afterwards. Crosby would eventually return, but the Penguins were not yet at a championship level. That came at the trade deadline when they traded for Sniper Hossa and defensive players Dupuis and Gill. What took everyone by surprise is that they actually got three defensive players in that trade. Hossa has been an astonishingly great two way player for the Penguins. It took a while for Hossa and Crosby to get on the same page. That didn’t happen until they were playing together on a regular basis at the start of the playoffs. But the defense was noticeably better by seasons end. They gave up 31 shots a game for the entire season. But the Penguins defense only allowed 26 shots a game in the final 10 games. This was a sign they were ready for playoff hockey. In fact, if you look at the shots on goal differential rankings I posted above, you will see the Penguins finished with a -2.0 by seasons end. But the Penguins were a different team by season’s end. I say that literally. They returned one of the best players in world to the line up in Sidney Crosby. Crosby missed about 2 months of the season. Hossa wasn’t on the team until the trade deadline. And even Hossa missed some games with injury. Defensive players Gill and Dupuis were also not with the team until the after the trade deadline. Defensive player Gary Roberts missed nearly the entire season but would return for start of Ottawa series. Penguins had a different roster by seasons end. Therefore those stats simply do not apply to this team. In fact, the ironic part of all of this, is that 2007/2008 Penguins resemble the 1990-1991 Penguins who finished the season with a -4.0 shots on goal differential but became a championship team at the trade deadline when they got Ron Francis and Ulf Samuelsson. In the playoffs , the Penguins have a +5 shots on goal differential. They are getting 32 shots a game and allowing 27. This is a 7 point difference from the regular season. Perhaps some of that is due to the fact that they played Ottawa in the first round. Ottawa had the worst record in the league since January. They were injury riddled and simply did not resemble the same team that started the season so impressively. But never the less the Penguins have made important strides in those Shots on goal area. TALE OF THE TAPE
Let’s take a look at how these two teams matchup statistically. Here are the playoffs stats so far.
Offensive Shots on Goal
Wings = 36
Pens = 32
Defensive Shots on Goal
Wings= 23
Pens = 27
Shooting Percentage
Wings = 9.2%
Pens = 11.0%
Shooting Percentage Allowed
Wings = 8.2%
Pens = 6.7%
FACE Off win percentage
Wings = 55%
Pens = 46%
Power play conversion percentage
Wings = 21.5%
Pens = 24.5 %
Power play conversion percentage allowed defensively
Wings = 12.7% Pens = 13.0%
Shorts Handed Goals scored
Wings = 5
pens = 1
Shorts Handed Goals allowed
Wings = 0
Pens = 1
5 on 5 goals for and against Ratio
Wings = 1.48
Pens = 1.71
Number of 1st Period Goals
Wings = 23
Pens = 14
Goals for and against Differential
Wings = +1.50
Pens = +1.78
Goalie save Percentage
Osgood = 93.1%
Fleury = 93.8%
Win Percentage when Leading after 1st Period
Wings = 91%
Pens = 100%
Win Percentage when Leading after 2nd Period
Wings = 100%
Pens = 100%
Average Power rating of opponents played in the playoffs
Wings = 3.4
Pens = 3.0
When looking at the playoff stats, a few things stand out to me. The first is Face off percentage. The Wings have a clear edge in this category. Which means, the Penguins power play and possibly their power play kill will be affected. When they are on the Power play they will lose precious minutes chasing the puck down the ice after the Wings win the face off. The other issue is that Fleury will most likely see more shots in this series. If the Wings are winning face off’s on their power plays, they can use their incredible puck possession skills to keep the puck in the Pittsburgh defensive zone, thus getting more shots on goal. How will Fleury handle this? He’s been super solid in the playoffs so far. But he’s going to get tested by the red wings. Thomas Holdstrom will play a key role in front of the net.
The other stat I notice is Goals scored in the 1st period. Take a look at the win percentage of both teams when they are ahead after the 1st and 2nd period. Another words you’re not going to make a living in this series if you fall behind. Both teams have developed a system to maintain the leads and suffocate opponents. The Redwings have scored 9 more 1st period goals in the playoffs. I’d also like to point out that against the Rangers, the Penguins were outshot on the road in games 3 and 4 by a total of 27 shots. In fact the Penguins numbers drop off more on the road than do the Red wings when they are the road team. Consider that the Redwings have the best record in the league when they outshoot the opponent. But they also have the worst record in the league when they get out shot. Therefore, the Penguins getting outshot in NY by so much is very troubling. Not winning face off’s , getting out shot, against a team that routinely jumps out quickly in the 1st period and then slams the door once they get the lead is not something you want if you’re the Penguins in Detroit. I think Detroit’s experience and ability to play much better on the road then do the Penguins, can play a huge role here. I think Detroit is a strong play in a game 1 at home. Below are the Shots on goal differential averages for each team on the road.
Wings 33 – 26 = +7 Shots on goal differential average in the playoffs on the road.
Pens 30 – 30 = 0 shots on goal differential in the playoffs on the road
The Wings also have 4 Short handed goals on the road. The Pens have none. Those 4 short handed goals on the road for the Wings, tells me that home teams are most likely trying to put on a show for the hometown team and have lost their discipline and concentration against a great Defense. This is something to watch for with a young team like the Penguins when they comeback home for game 3.
List of things each team has going for them in this series.
Detroit
1) Experience
2) Better Shots on goal differential average
3) Face off percentage
4) Better play on the road
5) Home ice advantage/ 1st period scoring.
Penguins
1) Shooting percentage
2) Shooting percentage allowed
3) 3 deep lines for Detroit to deal with
4) More physical of the two teams
5) Coaching (this guy does nothing wrong)
Conclusion
I think the longer this series goes, the more it favors the Penguins. I think if the Penguins can be no worse than 2-2 after 4 games, they could very well go on to win the series. I think the wings might be a shock to the system for the Penguins in game 1. This is easily the best team the Pens have faced. The Wings are super quick and extremely polished. It might take a while before the Penguins figure them out. The wings will have their issues to deal with too. But remember, Dallas had a better shooting percentage than the penguins. They will be prepared.
Prediction
I would hate to see the penguins lose in the finals. But at the beginning of the season, I predicted the Penguins to make it to the finals and lose. I’m going to stick with that prediction for better or worse. I just think the Penguins have to tighten the screws on little things like winning face off’s. Games like this tend to expose your weaknesses if you have any. Losing face off’s and giving up a short handed goal can cost you a critical game at home and eventually you lose the series because of it. I also worry about Crosby and Malkin a bit in this series. They both have the tendency to do a little too much fancy passing. You just can’t do that against this lightning quick defense. That’s why I like Detroit early in this series. Pens will have to figure things like that out. Finally, I am interested to see how Crosby and Fleury play . Its possible Fleury could finally have a bad series. He’s going to see shots. More shots than he is used to seeing . It will also be interesting to see how Crosby plays. The Rangers were a poor mans Red wings. Crosby did not play well against the Rangers. He always plays well against the flyers. So anointing him after the Flyers series is being short sighted in my opinion. It excused him of his poor series against the Rangers. The rangers anticipated many of his passes and if they weren’t such a poor shooting team, they would have capitalized more often on those turnovers. The red wings are a cerebral bunch. Not to mention an ultra fast defense. Crosby is going to need to look for his shot just as much as the pass in my opinion.
Oh well , I hope I’m wrong. Wings in six games.